The time has come. The Fat Lady quietly bows its head to fate as circumstances have forced us to discontinue. We’ve had a wonderful time expressing our thoughts and ideas and hearing from you, dear friends. It’s been a lot of fun and we hope you had as much as we did. Take care and hopefully, we will see you again.
Posted in Thanks! | Tagged Best regards | 1 Comment »
Opening Day is upon us. Over the past few weeks, we have prepared for this by previewing 30% of the league and looked at where they were in competing for the Stanley Cup. As the Boston Bruins raise their sixth champion banner, I wanted to touch a couple of items as the season starts and then entertain you with my predictions:
Sidney Crosby – The Penguins have played the NHL’s marquee player on IR for the start of the season. Nobody is sure when Crosby going to play for the Penguins again. Knowing that concussions are not very well understood, the Penguins are going to take a long term approach with Crosby. I expect them to error on the side of caution and hold Sid the Kid out of the lineup until they are 100% sure he is not in any danger. Any dates that are provided by someone outside of either Crosby’s family or the Penguins organization is just guessing.
Winter Classic – The 5th annual Winter Classic will take place on January 2nd, 2012 with the Philadelphia Flyers hosting the New York Rangers. NBC will be broadcasting the contest. This match will be familiar to their TV audience as NBC broadcast this matchup three different times last season. Hopefully when these teams design their “throwback uniforms”, the Flyers will leave the mid-1980’s pants out of the equation.
League Discipline – NHL VP Brendan Shanahan has shown that he is serious about legislating against head shots. Each suspension handed down by Shanny has been accompanied with a video showing the hit and Shanahan explaining the rationale for the suspension. This transparency is quite welcome to the hockey world as it too often appeared that the NHL was making these decisions in a vacuum with a dart board.
1993 Revisited – Temmu Selanne decided to come back to the Anaheim Ducks for his 19th season. Selanne had career resurgence last year scoring 31 goals and 80 points at the age of 40. This probably will be the last season of the Finnish Flash, so enjoy those sublime shooting abilities one more time. Selanne will exit with over 600 goals and 1300 points. The Hall of Fame will be calling for him quickly. Jaromir Jagr, another future Hall of Famer, returns to the NHL after a three season hiatus. Jagr signed a one year deal with the Flyers to provide offense, especially on the power play. Jagr’s has looked outstanding in preseason and his first point for the Flyers will be 1,600th. By the time the season, it would not be unreasonable to see Jagr pass Joe Sakic for 8th place in all-time NHL scoring.
Realignment - The Winnipeg Jets will move out of the Southeast Division and into the Western conference next season. The NHL will most likely move one team back into the Eastern conference. The expectation is that would be the Red Wings. This would leave Columbus as the only Western conference team in the Eastern Time Zone. It would not be surprising to see the NHL change the current three divisions in each conference format.
And for the sake of being able to have a good chuckle over the summer, here are my predictions for the upcoming season:
Eastern Conference Division Winners: Boston (Northeast), Pittsburgh (Atlantic) and Tampa Bay (Southeast)
Western Conference Division Winners: Detroit (Central), San Jose (Pacific) and Vancouver (Northwest)
Other Eastern Playoff Teams: Buffalo, Philadelphia, Washington, New York Rangers and Toronto
Other Western Playoff Teams: Chicago, Los Angeles, Nashville, Anaheim and Colorado
Surprise Teams: Toronto and Colorado
Disappointing Teams: Montreal and Phoenix
Stanley Cup: San Jose Sharks over Tampa Bay Lightning
Art Ross Trophy (Scoring Title): Alex Ovechkin, Washington
Hart Trophy (MVP): Steven Stamkos, Tampa
Rocket Richard Trophy (Most Goals Scored): Stamkos
Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman): Shea Weber, Nashville
Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year): Ryan Johansen, Columbus
Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward): Patrice Bergeron, Boston
Lady Byng Trophy (Sportsmanship): Pavel Datysuk, Detroit (I think the NHL is obligated to give it to him.)
Conn Smythe (Playoff MVP): Joe Thornton, San Jose
Jack Adams (Coach of the Year): Joe Sacco, Colorado
All Game Results: Seriously? Like anyone cares.
First Coach Fired: Jack Capuano, New York Islanders (Picking Paul Maurice has been done too many times.)
Player Suspended Longest: Jody Shelley, Philadelphia
Team Most Likely to Make Noise about moving: New York Islanders
City Most Aggressive to land a franchise: Quebec City
Posted in Hockey | Tagged nhl, San Jose Sharks, steven stamkos, tampa bay lightning | Leave a Comment »
I think every baseball can appreciate this and find this funny, even for our resident Yankees fan, Josh. In this spoof of “Moneyball,” the team at Jest takes a look at the mighty struggles of the New York Yankees to field a championship team with a $200 million payroll.
http://www.jest.com/moogaloop/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=46873&use_node_id=true&fullscreen=1
Posted in Baseball | Tagged baseball, MLB, new york yankees, too much moneyball | Leave a Comment »
We have previously previewed eight NHL teams and where they are at in their pursuit of Lord Stanley’s Cup. We finish this series with a look at the 2011 Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins. Unlike the other teams, we will look back as to what went right last year and discuss what the Bruins chances are of repeating.
One Bruins Fan is excited about the upcoming season
The Boston Bruins won their first Stanley Cup in 39 years having all the elements that are needed for a champion. Tim Thomas was outstanding in the Bruins net winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. In front of Thomas Norris Trophy winner Zdeno Chara led a solid defense. Offensively, the Bruins possess a deep forward group that provided timely scoring which being committed to defense. GM Peter Chiarelli augmented his core with late season trades for players who would thrive in Coach Claude Julien’s system during the playoff push.
As with any champion, the Bruins received some fortunate breaks along their path to glory. If Tim Thomas does not make that spectacular save on Brian Gionta in overtime of Game 7, there is not a Nathan Horton series winner, a Stanley Cup parade in Boston and nobody Googles the phrase “Brad Marchand shirtless”. Unlike the last two seasons where they suffered significant injuries and were bounced in the second round, the Bruins were fortunate as they were relatively healthy during the playoffs. Fourteen players (including Tim Thomas) played in every playoff game. The Bruins only used 13 forwards and 7 defensemen. By comparison the Canucks used 15 forwards and 10 defensemen. In the finals, the Canucks lost the war of attrition on defense due to injuries to Dan Hamhuis and Alexander Edler and the suspension to Aaron Rome.
As the baseball executive Branch Rickey once said “Luck is the residue of design”, the Bruins were lucky only because they were also very good. This was the best team in the league at even strength play. In the playoffs, the Bruins outscored their opponents by a league leading total of plus 28. In the finals the Bruins knew that to win they needed to have Thomas be the better goaltender and they had to neutralize the Sedin twins. They did both of those things while outscoring the Canucks by a whopping total of 23-8.
The Bruins succeeded last season from the goal out. They gave up the third fewest goals last season. Julien is a coach that stresses defense first and coaches a system that forces the Bruins opponents to away from the net and to shoot more from the perimeter. Tim Thomas won the Vezina with a record setting .938 save percentage and a league leading 2.00 goals against average. In front of Thomas and Tuukka Rask, Chara leads an underrated group on defense that can play a physical game and still move the puck. At 6’ 9” inches the extremely well-conditioned Chara might be the strongest player in the NHL. He also provides a booming shot and the ability to take over a game offensively and defensively. He is Bruins most important skater.
The Bruins forwards are a solid group and Julien maximizes their depth by playing their fourth line more than any coach does. The best player in this group is center Patrice Bergeron, who is terrific in all areas of the ice. Bergeron provides top line offensive play, but his offensive skill combined his ability to get loose pucks, win face-offs and kill penalties is what makes him special. To give a global perspective on what Bergeron provides, he is one a handful of players ever to win a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Goal Medal, a World Championship and a World Junior Championship. In each case Bergeron provides a different role for his winning club.
Scoring for the Bruins is expected to be handled by the first line of Milan Lucic, David Krejci and Nathan Horton. Lucic came into his own last year as adding a scoring touch of 30 goals with his physical play, making him one of the NHL’s premier power forwards. Horton shook off a slow start to score 26 goals and was a plus 29. The key to this trio is Krejci who stepped into this role after Marc Savard was lost for the season. Krejci is an outstanding passer who consistently makes good decisions with the puck. This was evident in the playoffs as teams played off of Krejci daring him to shoot. Krejci responded by scoring a playoff leading 12 goals during the Bruins Stanley Cup run.
Unlike the Blackhawks the season before, the Bruins team will look very much like the team that won the Stanley Cup last year. Quick shooting and inconsistent Michael Ryder and puck moving defenseman Tomas Kaberle left for free agency. Chiarelli quickly found adequate replacements in Benoit Pouliot and Joe Corvo respectively. A bigger loss to the Bruins will be the retirement of future Hall of Famer Mark Reechi. Reechi provided the veteran presence that you would expect of a player who had already sipped champagne from the Cup twice before. On the ice Reechi provided secondary scoring from the tough parts of the ice. The Bruins hope that 19 year old Tyler Seguin can use his speed and hand skills to replace Reechi alongside of Bergeron and 21 goal scorer Marchand.
The Bruins have all of the same major pieces in place to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. However, the mathematics does not favor them in their quest to go back to back. Since 1990, only two teams have won successive Cups. The 2010-11 Bruins were a very good team first and foremost. That they stayed healthy in the playoffs while receiving outstanding play from Thomas made the difference. The odds are not in favor for this to happen for a second straight year, but the Bruins still have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity if it presents itself.
Posted in Hockey | Tagged bruins, nhl, patrice bergeron, stanley cup, tim thomas, zdeno chara | Leave a Comment »
The Diamondbacks were able to earn another chance at postseason success by winning Game 3 by hitting Brewers’ starter Shaun Marcum hard and often.
The former Phillies starter, Randy Wolf, provided some value to the back end of the rotation in the early part of the century eventually landing in Milwaukee via the LA Dodgers. Though he’s throwing over 200 innings the past three seasons, he hasn’t done so particularly well. Still, he served his purpose as a back end starter; he just wasn’t paid like a back end starter. This year, he was able to limit walks (2.80 BB/9) and bring his HR/FB rate down to its lowest point since 2007. He won’t strike many guys outs and probably gives up too many fly balls in general, but a 4.29 FIP doesn’t mean he’s gonna get ripped every time out. He fares better against lefties than righties with as would be expected. I’m rarely one to call a homer to be hit by any one player but at 1.23 HR/9 against righties this season, Randy Wolf better not have anyone aboard by the time Justin Upton comes to bat. That could be dangerous. He’ll have to mix pitches and speeds to be successful and he doesn’t possess overpowering stuff and lacks an out pitch.
Despite his combined 2008-2009 record of 33-14, Joe Saunders has never been a good pitcher. His lowest FIP over a full season came in 2007 at 4.36. With a move to the NL, one might think that his numbers would improve, but they haven’t. He’s still giving up too many home runs and not striking out enough. He gets a decent groundball rate and “eat innings” but past that, there’s not much of a reason to have a lot of faith in the guy, sad to say. His changeup is his best offering as his 6.3 wCH and 0.43 wCH/C are his best marks in the pitch value department. As far as splits go, he’s much better against lefties (3.41 FIP) than righties (5.19 FIP). Against lefties, he strikes out guys at an average rate (7.30 K/9) and rarely walks them (1.09 BB/9) so maybe his future is in the bullpen as a lefty specialist though I can’t imagine he’d be happy with that.
As the Brewers lineup features many righties, I think Saunders is more likely to struggle than Wolf. I don’t have much confidence in the Diamondbacks lineup as a whole, even against someone like Randy Wolf. Still, it’s one game and anything can happen in one game but if this game were played a hundred times, the Brewers would probably come out on top a majority of the time.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged arizona diamondbacks, baseball, joe saunders, milwaukee brewers, MLB, national league division series, nlds, randy wolf | Leave a Comment »
The series continues at Busch Stadium in St. Louis for the first elimination game. Roy Oswalt looks to close out the series against the much traveled Edwin Jackson.
The longtime Houston Astros ace entered his first full season with the Phillies looking to lock down the back of the rotation as one of the vaunted “Four Aces.” After missing parts of the season due to various injuries and surviving rumors of retirement, Oswalt returned permanently to the rotation on August 7th pitching a 3.59 ERA in his last 11 starts. He’s showing his typical control (2.34 BB/9) and home run aversion (0.65), Oswalt more than filled the role of fourth starter when healthy as evidenced by his 3.44 FIP. Though his strikeouts are down (6.02 K/9), he’s still getting groundballs at a decent rate (45.1%). Though he gets big whiff rates with his curveball, he only threw it 9.7% of the time and for strikes only 54.3% of the time which probably led to his -1.9 wCB for this year. Despite a dimishing fastball, he’s been able to command it throughout his career and even keep its effectiveness in tact, as evidenced by his 12.7 wFB in 2011.
On the other side stands Edwin Jackson. He’s pretty much been the guy that everyone and no one wants, having been a member of 6 MLB teams despite being only 28 years old. Why is that, exactly? Part of it is because of his perceived front end starter value or, maybe, his 6 strikeout, 8 walk, 149 pitch no-hitter. Effectively wild puts it mildly, I’d say. He’s never been much of a strikeout or control guy or groundball guy so it’s hard to peg his allure. I can only imagine it starts with a fastball that sits 94-95. That gets people talking. But reaching true front end starterdom requires command of those pitches and the ability to limit home runs. Now that he’s in his athletic prime, we’re starting to see some of the signs of maturity and sustained success but nothing close to the promise many that they’d see. After his fastball, he features a slider 33% of the time and mixes in, more or less, a show me changeup and curveball.
I think Jackson is going to have a tough time against the lefties in the Phils’ lineup. With their backs against the wall, I could see Tony LaRussa going to the pen early and letting that very good bullpen keep them in the game. But, I also dont’ see Oswalt’s complete dominance of this lineup. It’s too good. At most, I see 6 innings out of him. Due to Jackson’s short leash, I see this being a close game but ultimately, the Phils clinching the series.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged baseball, edwin jackson, MLB, national league division series, nlds, philadelphia phillies, roy oswalt, st. louis cardinals | Leave a Comment »
Our last two previews take a look at the last two Stanley Cup Champions. Today, we will focus on Chicago Blackhawks who due to salary cap issues need to dismantle their championship squad almost immediately after they won the Stanley Cup.
The 2010 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks were built under then GM Dale Tallon as a young team with several up and coming stars. Forwards Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews as well as defensemen Duncan Keith and Glenn Seabrook were quickly identified as the future of the club and Tallon was building around these four franchise cornerstones.
Despite having these young stars, the summer of 2009 showed that the Blackhawks found that they were going to facing long term salary cap problems. Shortly after signing free agents Marian Hossa and Tomas Kopecky, the NHL filed a grievance against the Hawks for not providing timely qualifying offers to their seven restricted free agents. The Blackhawks were afraid that an arbitrator would allow these players become unrestricted free agents. As a proactive step, Tallon quickly signed all seven players (including Kris Versteeg and Dustin Byfuglien) to contracts above market value. For this gaffe, Tallon was replaced by Stan Bowman.
The Hawks realized that the team was going to be dismantled after the 2009-10 season. They rode their stars as well as Hossa, Patrick Sharp and rookie goaltender Antti Niemi to their first Stanley Cup since 1961. When it came time to meet salary, Bowman opted to keep Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook together in lieu of trading more inexpensive players. The parade route had hardly been cleared and the Hawks traded five players including Byfuglien. Versteeg and Andrew Ladd also were dealt by July 1st. The Blackhawks were dealt a further blow when restricted free agent defenseman Nicklas Hjalmarsson was given an offer sheet from the San Jose Sharks. The Hawks matched the Sharks offer for Hjalmarsson, but this forced them to walk away from Niemi in arbitration.
With their rebuilt team, the Blackhawks were a work in progress last season. Jonathan Toews played great in all areas of the ice as led the team in scoring and showed was a Selke Trophy finalist for best defensive forward. Patrick Sharp reemerged as a scoring threat with his 34 goal season. Patrick Kane was still very good scoring a point a game for the 73 games that he played. Offensively, the Hawks had a balanced attack as they were the fourth highest scoring team in the league.
Defensively, the Hawks came back to the pack as they were twelfth in goals against. Brent Seabrook had a better season in 2010-11, but Duncan Keith fell off of his Norris Trophy level play last year. The Hawks really missed Byfuglien in the corners and in front of the net at both ends. The goaltending situation was unsettled until Corey Crawford wrestled the job away from Marty Turco and turned in a fine first season with a 2.30 goals against and a .917 save percentage.
The Hawks finished eighth in the conference and faced the President Trophy winner Canucks in the first round. The Hawks lost the first three games of the series. The return of Dave Bollard for Game 4 helped Chicago win the next three games and even the series before losing to the Canucks in Game 7. A statistical oddity in the series is that despite losing the series, the Hawks outscored the Canucks 22-16. As odd as that is, the Hawks outscored their opponents in the regular season by a count of 252 to 210. As a comparison, only the Red Wings and the Sharks had better goal differential than did the Hawks.
In the off-season, the Blackhawks continued to pare salary. Kopecky and Brian Campbell were dealt to in separate deals to Florida for Rostislav Olesz and draft choices. Later that summer, the Hawks walked away from Chris Campoli in arbitration. Shedding Campbell and his $7 million dollar salary will allow the Hawks add pieces down the line. The Hawks hope that rookie Nick Leedy and veteran Steve Montador can fill Campbell’s void on the blueline.
The Hawks basically stood pat up front with Andrew Brunette being the only significant forward addition. Chicago has decided to try to get a more balanced offense through a change of position. Patrick Kane is moving from his customary position of right wing to the center position. If Kane can handle the defensive responsibilities, this will be a real bonus for the Hawks. This would allow the Hawks to populate two different lines with two outstanding offensive players in Kane, Toews, Sharp and Hossa. A lineup with Toews, Kane and two way standout Dave Bolland would give opponents matchup difficulties. I am not sure if moving Kane to the middle will work, but I give Coach Joel Quenneville, props for thinking outside the box on this.
So the question is whether the Blackhawks are cup contenders this season? The Hawks were a better team than they record showed last year. Crawford stepped into an unsettled situation and established himself as a number #1 goaltender. The Blackhawks big guns are also going to score their share of goals. The key to the Hawks is their defense. In 2009-10 season, Chicago defenseman were instrumental to their offense by moving the puck quickly and provide quick transition from defense to offense. Last season, this was not as effective for Chicago, and the team suffered. The Hawks will need Keith, Seabrook, Leddy and Montador to relocate the teams transition game. If the Hawks can do that, they can be playing deep into the spring.
Posted in Hockey | Tagged blackhawks, jonathan toews, nhl, patrick kane | Leave a Comment »
As a baseball, I liked what Shaun Marcum did last year but was surprised to see him in trade this offseason. Though it made sense since he was coming off his best season and still in his arbitration years, I could see why he wouldn’t be a long term fixture in the Jays’ rotation. He gave up a few too many homers and didn’t profile to be dominant and I think the Jays saw they would eventually be too expensive to keep him. Still, he provided solid value last season which continued into this season as evidenced by his 3.73 FIP and 2.7 fWAR in 33 starts over 200 innings. It’s probably all the more impressive because he sits 86-87 mph with his fastball which is about 4-5 mph slower than the average. As you might expect, he gets the job done by mixing his pitches as he throws each of his offering at least 10% of the time. Marcum consistently throws changeups to both lefties and righties, much like Cole Hamels, so that gives you an indication of how confident he is in that pitch. It makes sense since he big whiff rates to both sides with his changeup. His slider is brutal on righties (24.8 whiff rate) and still very effective on lefties (15.8% whiff rate). You can also expect a cutter and a curveball from Marcum as well. He’s a solid Number 3 starter who fits neatly behind Greinke and Gallardo in the Brewers rotation.
Josh Collmenter made a big splash this season by not allowing any runs in his first MLB start against the Dodgers. Many people know him by his unorthodox delivery, but he was able to provide good value in the middle of the rotation behind Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. He’s primarily a fastball, changeup, curveball guy working a fastball/changeup combination 94% of the time and essentially attacks righties and lefties the same way. Though his FIP against righties stands at 3.04 with predictably good peripherals, lefties tag him for a 4.59 with a HR/9 rate of 1.18. A match-up with this Brewers lineup actually might bode well for Collmenter despite their offensive prowess due to the lack of lefthanded hitters than can do real damage. Obviously, Prince Fielder might hit the ball a long way against him but if Collmenter can limit walks (which he’s done all year) and baserunners, I’m sure manager Kirk Gibson will be fine with a solo shot from Fielder.
The Diamondbacks haven’t done much against from a hitting standpoint all year and they’re facing a guy who mixes his pitches effectively. It could be close, even low scoring, but I think the Brewers will be booking their NLCS hotel and plane reservations sooner rather than later.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged arizona diamondbacks, baseball, josh collmenter, milwaukee brewers, MLB, national league division series, nlds, shaun marcum | Leave a Comment »
After a grueling game last night, the teams return for the elimination game number one. What can we expect from the starters? I have no idea. They can be good. They can be bad. It’s more of a matter of who executes.
AJ Burnett has described as enigmatic. Most Yankee fans would describe him as “terrible.” Well, he was fine in his first season in pinstripes, but yes, he’s been terrible ever since. As a Yankee fan, it hurts me to look up his stats. He walks too many (3.92 BB/9), he gives up too many home runs (1.47 HR/9) and he might as well completely give up throwing his fastball (-31.4 wFB, yes, that’s a negative sign, which is the worst in all of baseball). He’s never been a command, or even control, guy so when he lost the ability to throw upper 90s consistently, he lost his window of opportunity get away with mistakes. As you may have seen with Justin Verlander last night, he was able to challenge hitters up in their wheelhouses while the best they could do (for the most part, he did give up four runs after all) was foul it off. If there is one saving grace for AJ, it is the effectiveness of his curveball which still grades out at favorably. He’s struck out plenty this year (8.18 K/9) but unfortunately, he doesn’t get ahead in the count enough. If he locates his fastball, his curveball gets better but with AJ, there’s no predictive value because he’s so erratic.
Fortunately for the Yankees, the Tigers’ Rick Porcello isn’t much better. Though he’s improved each year in the majors, he’s not someone who will automatically perform better than Burnett. He used to have strikeout stuff but when he entered the Tigers’ farm system, he made himself into a sinker/slider pitcher. In a chat at RiverAveBlues led by prospect go-to and general baseball good guy, Mike Axisa, Porcello was put on an 80-pitch limit so he developed a sinking fastball to try and get outs early in the count to go deeper into games. With a career K/9 of 4.84, he’ll almost certainly never be a front end pitcher since he essentially has no out pitch. Relying on defense against an offense like the Yankees is a recipe for disaster. Granted, he did pitch well in last seven starts and maybe, just maybe, they’re an indication that he’s turned a corner but when you’re throwing against teams like the Indians, Royals, White Sox, A’s and Orioles, you’re expected to get the result. However, he was unable to strike out more than four in any of those starts.
In other words, it’s gonna be a bloodbath. Each pitcher will give up at least a few flyballs that go to the warning track but I don’t think either pitcher will last through five full innings.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged aj burnett, alds, american league division series, baseball, detroit tigers, MLB, new york yankees, rock porcello | Leave a Comment »
Big win for the Cards in Game 2 as they beat Cliff Lee to even the series. Having the best offense in the NL allows you keep hoping that you can break through any pitcher, even Cliff Lee.
The erstwhile staff ace, Cole Hamels, takes the bump against Albert Pujols and the gang at 5:07 Eastern on TBS. One thing that experts love about Cole is his ability to limit walks. However, until this year, he’s been plagued by the longball as he’s always given them up at an inflated rate, partly due to playing in a hitter’s park. One would expect, though, that he’d learn how to pitch in his home ballpark in the same way that Andy Pettitte did for the Yanks in 2009. The rest of Hamels’ peripherals check out (8.08 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 52.3% GB rate) including his HR rates of 0.79 HR/9 and 9.9% HR/FB, both of which are career lows leading to his best season to date. Obviously, his personal best was overshadowed by brilliant seasons by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, but a 3.05 FIP and 4.9 fWAR could be a sign of things to come. He’s added a cutter to his repertoire but will probably forever be known by his absolutely filthy changeup. Based on both two pitch value metrics (wCH and wCH/C), Hamels’ changeup was the best changeup (and one of the best pitches) in the majors at 32.3 and 4.35, respectively. Just how good is his changeup? Consider this: against LEFTIES (ya know, the guys you don’t throw likehanded changeups to) he throws it 19.4% of the time but STILL GETS a 27.0% whiff rate. That’s absurd in the purest sense of the word. Virtually nothing changes mechanically between his fastball and changeup which is part of the reason it is so effective. It looks like a fastball but simply never gets there. Next thing you know, you’re striking out or hitting a weak grounder.
The Cardinals Jaime Garcia made ways last year pitching very well in his rookie season thanks to an above average K/9, a manageable BB/9, a great GB rate and a good HR/FB rate. He continued to build on the foundation he laid last year though his ERA would tell you otherwise. Of course, we’re more focused on the improvement of his FIP (3.41 in ’10 to 3.23 in ’11). He was able to stabilize his K/9 while decreasing his walks. His homerun rate jumped a bit but was still below league average. Also, we saw only a slight drop in GB rate but not enough to be alarmed about. Though his fastball lost some effectiveness from last year, he was able to utilize his effective cutter, curveball and changeup to get outs. He won’t blow his fastball by anybody but he’ll change speeds and use movement to his advantage as he gets big time whiff rates with his offspeed stuff.
I don’t see the Phils putting a beating to Garcia this game. If anything, this game will be decided by Hamels’ dominance. If he can keep the Cardinals at bay, which I think he will, I see the Phils winning but not big. Should be a fun match-up.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged baseball, cole hamels, jaime garcia, MLB, national league division series, nlds, philadelphia phillies, st. louis cardinals | Leave a Comment »
Joshua Fortunatus
ChoppedGinger
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